The Emnid poll said 53 percent of Germans surveyed thought Greece should return to its former currency, the drachma, while only 34 percent felt it should keep the euro.
Euro zone ministers had hoped to meet this coming Monday to finalize the second Greek bailout, which must be in place by mid-March to prevent a chaotic default, but the meeting was postponed because of reluctance in Athens to commit to reforms.
Without the austerity measures, which include cutting holiday bonuses and lowering the minimum wage in a country reeling from its fifth year of recession, the ministers say they cannot approve the 130 billion euro ($171 billion) rescue plan.
The Emnid poll said 80 percent of Germans surveyed opposes releasing the rescue package unless Greece implements the reforms.
To be fair, this was published in Bild am Sonntag (Scene on Sunday), which is a relatively euroskeptic tabloid - but yeah, can’t imagine it being too inaccurate a representation of what Germany is thinking. This is going to be a big challenge in the next German elections, because the main parties have had Greece policies ranging from “give Greece lots of cash with very strict conditions” to “give Greece lots of cash with slightly less strict conditions” - not a broad range of policy options, and not at all what voters want.
Not sure what’s going to happen from here in terms of voter support. Merkel’s party’s junior coalition partner is a small-government free-market type of party, and the fact they’ve been dragged into supporting Greece has basically wiped them out. They’re polling around three percent, which would mean zero seats under the German system. Meanwhile the Pirate Party is doing relatively well (in Germany it’s really concerned with privacy rights, and it’s also kind of euroskeptic) and will likely win seats, and the Greens are doing really well and are likely to increase their vote share. To me, it seems like German voters are increasingly just going for the least establishment party they can find because they’re dissatisfied with the usual options.
So this handy little flash device will show you the current polling positions of the two major parties and the third parties in Germany.
Basically:
The Christian Democratic Union (and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria) are polling at a level consistent with their 2009 and 2005 results - 33.8% and 35.2%.
However, their preferred governing partner (the Free Democratic Party) has collapsed and could have zero seats in the Reichstag. Say goodbye to Germany’s first queer foreign minister.
The Social Democratic Party has recovered somewhat since their thumping in 2009 (they’re polling five points higher than their meager take in the last election of 23%). While the CDU/CSU has a large plurality over the SPD, the SPD is the party likely to form the next coalition because…
The Greens are polling quite well at 14% and the Pirate Party at 8%. These two parties appear to be locked into the same voter base - when one party goes up in the polls (usually die Piraten), the other (die Grünen) goes down. But a take of 14% would be their best electoral showing ever (above their previous best of 10.7% in 2009).
The Left, the thorn in the side of the SPD, was founded by leftist SPD members and former communists from East Germany in protest of the SDP’s moderation - specifically Gerhard Schröder’s. The SPD has usually pledged not to form a governing coalition with them, and would give away their first born children to see the party disappear. The Left is currently polling at 7%, almost 5% less than the last election. This decreased share means the SPD can ignore them in coalition formation and focus on the other two left leaning parties.
What does all of this mean? If an election were held today, the probable coalition would be SPD-Green-Pirate (Red-Green-Orange, or a “Pepper” Coalition). It’s not certain the Pirate party would support the SPD in coalition, but I would wager they would (or at least agree to show confidence in the government). With these polling numbers, it is highly unlikely the CDU-CSU will be returned to power barring another Grand Coalition with the SPD. And after the 2005-2009 coalition government (which, in combination with Steinmeier’s notable lack of charisma) was largely responsible for the shellacking the party received before.
A note about the German electoral system: the Bundestag elections are split between constituencies (299 in the last election) and party lists (323 seats in the last election). You can vote actually vote for one party for the constituency you’re in, and another for the party list you prefer - the percentages I mentioned above are from the party list votes. Personally, I kinda like this system, for reasons I could explain later. This is why the major parties will have more seats than their vote shares would indicate.
Long story short: The Free Democrats are going to enter a wilderness period, the SPD needs to work on their electoral program (and get themselves a charismatic Chancellor-in-waiting), the real battle will likely be between the Greens and the Pirates, and the CDU/CSU should start transitioning toward a post-Merkel future, and try to salvage their polling position.
-
jakke liked this
-
i-thaphithin reblogged this from jakke and added:
So this handy little flash device will show you the current polling positions of the two major parties and the third...
-
jakke posted this
I'm generally not a fan of you.
